The preliminary negotiations should have ended today, but there is agreement on only 28 per cent of it. There is a divide between rich countries and developing nations.
Brazil and China want to create a US$ 30 billion-dollar-a-year fund to help the transition to a green economy. The UN estimates the cost in US$ 1.3 trillion. Talks will go on during the weekend and probably until the heads of state and government summit on June 20-22.
But Presidents Barack Obama and Hu Jintao are not coming, as well as the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Brazil and the developing nations of the Group of 77 argue that what was established in Rio in 1992 cannot be turned back, particularly the idea of "shared but differentiated responsibilities". Canada wants this part to be removed.
The rich countries do not want to give more money to China and maybe even to Brazil arguing that these are no longer developing nations. China alleges they still have hundreds of millions of poor people in the country side, but they have also trillions of dollars in hard currency reserves. They are adult enough to help themselves.
At the same time, Brazil, China and India do not accept anything but voluntary targets. They want money without further commitments. This is not going to happen.
Another friction is on technology transfer. The developing nations believe the rich will not do it because they see it as competitive advantages, and want to sell their green tecnologies in the future. But China is now the main investor and main developer of wind and solar energy. They are fitghing with the US for leadership in this area (and many others). Why should they need extra money?
I do not see any international leadership coming from China and any other developing nation. They are looking for money and excuses, are interested in new technologies, but have not changed their developmentalist growth model.
Despite having vetoed that ugly (anti)Forest Code, President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil has a very backward mentality in relation to the environment. She promised to protect the Amazon rain forest with governor Blairo Maggi, the King of Soy, at her back. She wants to build the Belo Monte dam at any cost. Petrobras is cutting its expenses in alternative sources of energy, says today the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper.
Brazil is not doing well, growth was 0,2 per cent at last quarter, at 0,8 por cent, behind the US and Japan. The contry needs public investment in infrastructure and education, for instance, we need alternative energies and a broadband network to build the infrastructure of a 21st century economy. What does the government do? Cuts taxes for the car industries and credit through state banks. Most of the new middle class families have large debts. Lula's economic model is done.
Dilma said that wind and solar energy will not do it. Of course, it is not enough. But can be enough for domestic consumption, for poor communities in the Amazon and the Northeast, where it makes no economic sense for a large company to extend the grid because the cost/tariff would be too expensive.
Brazil had one the dirtiest economic stimulous packages after the 2008 crisis. In Korea, 75% went to the so-called green economy. In China, 25%. In the US: 12%. In Brazil, only 6%. That was under Lula, but Dilma is not much different.
For Brazil and for Rio, the conference is good. I do not expect much from the leaders, maybe the commitment to set sustainable development targets in the near future, maybe a new methodology to calculate the gross domestic. Europe would like to change the UN Environment Program into an agency like the World Health Organisation (WHO), but developing nations do not want foreign noses smelling their waste.
Anyawy, it is good for people's consciousness. The mayor closed the Gramacho wasteland, one of that horrible places where scavengers dispute rests of rotten food with the vultures. On a rainy Sunday morning, people got together to colect garbage at Copacabana, Ipanema and Leblon.
It is hard to change lifestyles. Rio+20 does it. At least.
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